Pricing each target four ways
The plan is priced as if everything lands, then again with side effects, with realistic odds, and with both, so the number you plan on is one a board will accept.
One number would overstate the plan
If every target lands in full, the sample’s plan adds $2.00M. A board will discount that, because not every target lands and every move has side effects. So the plan does the discounting first, and shows its working.
The plan, priced
$2.00M added to value at sale
Delivered. Every target hit in full, in sequence. The headline: $3.93M → $5.93M.
Side effects in. The same targets, with the side effects of each move modeled together.
At its odds. Each target moved only as far as its probability of delivery (70% for most moves, 50% for growth).
Odds and side effects. Both discounts at once. This is the board’s figure.
Slide from left to right: each step adds one more reason to be careful. The report also prints a fifth figure, each objective’s value times its odds summed ($1.38M), as a cross-check.
Alone, and in sequence
Each objective is also priced on its own, so you can see what it is worth if it were the only thing you did. Done in sequence, the later moves are usually worth a little more, because they act on a business the earlier moves have already improved.
How to read it. Switch tabs to compare. Overhead is worth $446k alone and $509k in sequence, because it comes after pricing has already raised revenue.
Where the odds come from
Each objective carries a probability of delivery and a cost. They are estimates for review, graded C, until the first quarter’s actual results replace them. In the sample:
| Move | Cost | Odds | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pricing | $15k | 70% | +$434k |
| Overhead | $52k | 70% | +$356k |
| Gross margin | $37k | 70% | +$314k |
| Retention | $63k | 75% | +$194k |
| Growth | $286k | 50% | +$82k |
Cost is one-off. Expected is the in-sequence value times the odds. The plan’s one-off cost, including readiness items, is $477k.
- Delivered. Targets applied in the chosen order; value after, less value before
- Side effects in. Every target plus every declared coupling applied at once
- At its odds. Each input moved from today by its probability times the distance to target, then the engine is re-run once
- Board’s figure. The odds run with the couplings scaled by the same probabilities
- Payback. A cash measure: one-off cost plus a year of run-rate against the annual EBITDA the objective adds in its delivery year, never against the value at sale
See it on a real report, or see it on yours.Download a sample reportSchedule demo