“Moves your value by”
Under every answer, the studio shows how far that one number could move the value. It tells you where to spend your care, and it’s how the value’s range is built.
One answer, priced
Under every answer the studio prints a dollar range: how much the value would change if that one answer moved across its believable range, with everything else held still. It tells you which answers deserve a careful look and which can take a good estimate.
The studio reruns the whole valuation at the low and the high end of the input’s test range, holding every other input where it is, and prints the change from the current value at each end.
How wide the test is depends on whose number it is
Test range for one answer
Your number
A figure you supply is tested at ±5%. A service gross margin of 62% is tested from 58.9% to 65.1%; in the sample that swings the value by $417k.
A number the engine inferred and you haven’t confirmed is tested at ±15%. The same 62% would be tested from 52.7% to 71.3%, about three times as wide.
An unanswered question is tested across the whole typical range for your kind of business: for service gross margin, 58% to 76%. Answering it is the quickest way to narrow the range.
Choices with a few options (who owns the platform, what happens if you step away) are tested from the worst option to the best. Revenue, seats and documented amounts are facts, so they aren’t swept at all.
The sample’s ten biggest swings
- Key-person dependenceOwner-stated · worst to best option$485k
- Service gross marginDocument-verified · 58.9%–65.1%$417k
- Platform ownershipOwner-stated · worst to best option$374k
- OverheadDocument-verified · 31.35%–34.65%$252k
- Carrier dependenceDocument-verified · 47.5%–52.5%$140k
- Customer churnDocument-verified · 4.47%–4.94% a year$117k
- Reported EBITDADocument-verified · $426k–$471k$59k
- Market salary for the replacement managerOwner-stated · $133k–$147k$59k
- Seat growthFrom the statements · 7.22%–7.98% a year$59k
- Equipment revenue shareDocument-verified · 6.65%–7.35%$37k
How to read it. Each row is one input. Red is how far the value falls at the bad end, green how far it rises at the good end. The number on the right is the full swing. The rows are the finished report’s.
Two of the largest rows are strengths, not risks: the business already runs with a manager in place, and it owns its platform. The swing is what losing them would cost.
Why some answers move the value by $0
A few questions are there for the plan and the diagnosis, not the price. What one seat costs you each month, or what it costs to win a new seat, feeds the driver trees and the plan. The value reads your gross margin instead, which already contains those costs. Counting both would count the same dollars twice, so the card honestly says $0.
A regulatory gate isn’t on this chart either. A failed gate isn’t a small error in a measurement; it’s a different world, so it is priced as a scenario on its own.
How the range is built
- Sweep. For each numeric input: owner figure ±5%; inference ±15%; assumed median or advisor estimate across the band’s low to high quartile (or ±25% where no band exists); hard facts not swept.
- Choices. For choices that matter as levers (platform ownership, key person, regulatory status, 911, USF recovery), every option except “not sure” is run, and the best and worst are reported.
- The range. The low and high ends of the headline range are the wider of the operating scenarios and the conclusion plus or minus the root sum of squares of the numeric sweeps. Choices and gates are scenarios, never error bars.
- Order. The ten largest swings are listed, largest first.
Rangelow = point − √(Σ downsidei2), Rangehigh = point + √(Σ upsidei2)
then widened, if needed, to the lowest and highest operating scenario
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