Industry dossiers
Before anyone answers a question, one industry is researched, checked and written down: how its businesses really make money, and what normal looks like.
What a dossier is
A dossier is deep research on one industry code, written down before any owner shows up. It says how businesses in that code actually make money, what normal looks like for each kind of business in it, and which operating numbers move value the most. The first one covers hosted voice and UCaaS providers.
What’s inside one
- Position and a screening testWhere the code sits, its official definition, its neighbors, and a short test that places one firm in the right economy.
- Benchmarks, correctedEach benchmark checked against what the code actually contains, with low, middle and high values for each kind of business.
- A valuation treeFrom the value of the equity down to the numbers an owner can pull from a billing system or a contract file.
- A reverse indexStart from a number you run the business on and find where it lands in the value, which way, and how hard.
- States of the worldThe events that could change the business, with their basis and how to watch for them.
- Graded sourcesEvery source sorted by how far it can be trusted, and the weakest evidence named in the dossier’s own words.
From a number you run to the value
The reverse index is the part an owner uses most without seeing it. It is why each question in the studio can say how much it moves your value, and why the plan starts where it does.
| A number you run the business on | Where it lands in the value | Effect | Kind of lever |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customers lost each year | The revenue forecast and the life of every customer | ▲▲▲ first-order | operating |
| Service gross margin | The margin every forecast year carries | ▲▲ material | operating |
| Average price per seat | The revenue forecast, on a fixed cost base | ▲▲ material | operating |
| Regulatory fees passed through | The odds of the cost-shock state | ▲ second-order | risk |
Four rows of the reverse index for hosted voice. The full index runs every operating number the research found.
How to read it. Read across: the number you manage, the part of the valuation it feeds, how much it matters, and whether it moves cash flow or the odds of a bad state.
Notice the last row: a fee passed straight through to customers doesn’t change profit dollars at all. Its only effect on value is through the odds that rising fees push customers away. Without the index, it looks like a margin problem; with it, it’s a risk to watch.
Each row also records the mechanism in words and the path through the valuation, so an analyst can follow a change in churn through the revenue forecast, operating profit and free cash flow to the equity value.
Used three times
- Frozen into policyIts medians are copied into the valuation policy’s table and stamped with a version.
- Writes the questionsThe studio’s nine chapters and every typical range come from its tree.
- Read at report timeBenchmark ranges, the industry landscape, deal multiples and the back-test.
The dossier informs the value but cannot quietly move it. The medians the engine prices with live in the valuation policy, so new research changes a value only through a recorded policy change, and the report’s revision bridge names it.
- Staleness. A dossier older than 24 months, or a deal older than that, is flagged; in the sample, 7 of 12 deals in the evidence set were older and were read as context for the multiple range, not as current prices
- Version pin. Each dossier is pinned to a version of the valuation method and carries its compile date on every page of the report
- Screening order. Own network → carrier; resells taking title → reseller; voice or Internet over the customer’s connection → over-the-top economy; earth stations, tracking or radar for others → ground-segment economy; platform only → software or hosting; makes the hardware → manufacturing
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