Five scenarios
Nobody knows which future arrives, so the engine values the business in several, gives each odds, and weights them. The headline is the weighted answer, not the hopeful one.
Why one forecast isn’t enough
Nobody knows which future will arrive. So instead of betting on one, the engine values the business in several futures, each with odds, and takes the weighted average. A rare disaster gets a small weight; the likely case gets a large one.
Scenarios set the expected cash flow; the discount rate prices the uncertainty around it. They are separate jobs, so a risk is modelled in one or the other, never in both.
How to read it. Each bar is the whole engine re-run in that world. The headline is not the mid-case; it’s every bar times its weight, added up: $3.93M.
| State | Weight | Equity |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-case | 51% | $4.31M |
| Bundle compression | 29% | $3.48M |
| Contribution escalation | 17% | $4.12M |
| Regulatory gate event | 3% | $769k |
| Contact-center and AI attach outside the headline | (15%) | $5.05M |
What “Mid-case” assumes
The forecast on the company’s own inputs.
What “Bundle compression” assumes
Microsoft Teams and Zoom re-price voice, pressing seat prices, margin and long-run growth.
What “Contribution escalation” assumes
The Universal Service Fund contribution factor rises to 50%, one step beyond the factor already announced.
What “Regulatory gate event” assumes
The Robocall Mitigation Database listing lapses and the customer book is ported out in an orderly way.
What “Contact-center and AI attach” assumes
Shown, but kept out of the headline: there is no industry evidence yet on attach rates for providers this size.
From five values to one
Multiply each state’s value by its weight and add them up, and you get the concluded value. With the upside state left out, the four headline states give $3.93M. If you believe the upside state and give it its 15% weight, the figure is $4.08M; both are printed.
Move ten points of weight between the mid-case and bundle compression
as weighted
Concluded value $3.84M.
Concluded value $3.93M.
Concluded value $4.03M.
Where the weights come from
The industry dossier names the states but assigns no probabilities. The weights are the engine’s judgments, written into the valuation policy the way the discount rate is, each with the evidence it rests on and the observation that would change it.
| State | Basis | What would move it |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-case | The forecast on the company’s inputs; it absorbs what the others give up | Nothing directly |
| Bundle compression | Microsoft at 22% of UCaaS seats and Teams and Zoom re-pricing voice; every own-platform provider in the band faces it | Twelve months of churn coded by reason |
| Contribution escalation | The contribution factor at 42% with a history of rising | The FCC’s quarterly contribution-factor notices |
| Regulatory gate event | A 3% prior for a listed provider, from the two 2025 removal orders against about 7,000 listed providers | The public record check each quarter |
| Contact-center and AI attach | No industry evidence for providers this size; the owner’s answer is the only evidence | Attach data from the installed base |
The weighting rule
- Gate prior first. the gate state’s 3% prior is taken first: 20% if the filing is deficient, 95% if removed, 8% if unknown, +3 points if 911 is not in place, +2 for registration gaps
- Operating shares. the four operating states share 100 points (45 mid-case, 25 compression, 15 escalation, 15 attach) and scale to the 97% the gate leaves
- Upside excluded. the attach state’s scaled share is spread over the three other operating states for the headline; the gate keeps its prior
- Floor. the customer book’s porting value is applied inside each state, so the option to stop and sell the book in a bad state is kept
- One home for each risk. a risk priced in a state is not also added to the discount rate
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